Sweden Polling Average
The Sweden polling average is a daily weighted estimate of voting intention for the Swedish Riksdag. It combines data from major Swedish pollsters — including Novus, Verian, Demoskop, Ipsos, Sifo, and SCB — weighting each poll by recency, sample size, and pollster track record. The Social Democrats (S) currently lead the polling average. The next general election is scheduled for 13 September 2026.
What is a polling average?
A polling average combines results from multiple opinion polls to produce a single, more reliable estimate of public opinion. Individual polls have margins of error and methodological differences. By averaging across many polls — and weighting for recency, sample size, and pollster quality — a polling average reduces noise and provides a clearer picture of where each party stands.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sweden polling average?▼
The Sweden polling average is a weighted estimate of voting intention for the Swedish Riksdag, combining data from major Swedish pollsters. It includes Novus, Verian, Demoskop, Ipsos, Sifo, SCB, and others, weighting each poll by recency, sample size, and pollster track record to produce a single best estimate of where each party stands.
How often is it updated?▼
The polling average is recalculated daily. When significant new polls are published, the model is updated within hours to reflect the latest data.
Which Swedish pollsters are included?▼
The model includes all major Swedish pollsters that publish Riksdag voting intention polls, including Novus, Verian, Demoskop, Ipsos, Sifo, SCB (Statistics Sweden), and others.
How is the weighted average calculated?▼
Each poll receives a weight based on three factors: recency (exponential decay with a 14-day half-life), sample size (larger polls count more), and pollster reliability (scored based on historical accuracy and methodology).
What is the 4% threshold?▼
Swedish law requires parties to win at least 4% of the national vote or win seats in a specific electoral district to enter the Riksdag. This threshold significantly affects the strategic considerations of smaller parties.
What are the political blocs?▼
Swedish parties are typically grouped into three blocs: the left bloc (S, V, MP), the right bloc (M, SD, KD, L), and the centre (C). The 2026 election will determine which bloc can form a government majority.
Is this a prediction of the 2026 election?▼
No. The polling average estimates current public opinion. It is not a forecast of the election result. Opinions can shift significantly before election day.
What is the data source?▼
All polling data is sourced from published Swedish voting intention surveys, collected and verified from official pollster publications and Swedish election research databases.