United States · 2026 midterm elections forecast
The midterm elections are on 3 November 2026.
Democrats have a 96% chance of winning the House and a 61% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead by 7.5 points. Updated 7 October 2026.
Updated 7 Oct 2026/How this is made
House of Representatives · 435 seats
Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%
Chance of winning 218 seats or more.
House forecast →Senate · 35 seats contested
Democrats win 51 or more seats: 61%
Republicans control the Senate in 31%, including 50–50 outcomes.
Senate forecast →President · approval rating
Trump's approval rating is 36%
61.4% disapprove.
Approval tracker →The generic ballot
Which party voters would back for Congress, in the average of national polls. The shaded band is the 95% interval.
Democrats 48.8%, Republicans 41.2%, a lead of 7.5 points, in an average of 672 polls.
Before 3 September, each day's figure was calculated once and not updated when later polls arrived. See the historical data note in the methodology.
When are the midterm elections?
Tuesday 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested.
Who controls Congress now?
Republicans hold majorities in both the House and the Senate. The forecasts are for the Congress elected in November.