Independent polling averages · Updated daily
Independent polling averages and election forecasts.
For the United Kingdom and the United States. Every figure shows the estimate, the range the evidence allows and the date of the data behind it.
United Kingdom · Westminster
Labour lead Reform UK by 3.4 points
Labour 26.4%, Reform UK 23%, in the average of 13 Oct 2026.
See the UK field →United States · Senate
Democrats have a 61% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats
Republicans control the Senate in 31% of simulations, including 50–50 outcomes decided by the Republican Vice-President. Forecast of 13 Oct 2026.
See the Senate forecast →United States · House of Representatives
Democrats have a 97% chance of winning the House
Republicans have a 3% chance. Forecast of 13 Oct 2026.
See the House forecast →United States · Presidential approval
Trump's approval rating is 35%
62% disapprove. Average of 22 polls, 13 Oct 2026.
See the approval trend →United States · 2028 President
JD Vance and Kamala Harris lead the 2028 primary polls
Polling averages, 13 Oct 2026. Market prices are shown separately on the page.
See the 2028 polls →Republican
JD Vance43.8%
Democratic
Kamala Harris32.7%
What this is
Averages and forecasts, labelled
UK and Sweden: weighted polling averages, not predictions. US House and Senate: forecasts, stated as chances.
The polls
Every poll we use is listed
Pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size, on one page.
When the votes are counted
We publish how we did
After each election the result goes beside our final figure, misses included. Sweden 2026 is the first.