United Kingdom · Westminster voting intention
Labour lead Reform UK by 3.4 points.
Updated 7 Oct 2026/2,103 polls/ 33 pollsters/Fieldwork to 5 Oct/ How this is made
How the parties have moved
The daily average for each party. The shaded bands show the range the evidence allows for the two leading parties.
| Party | Now | 30 days | 90 days | Change | Range allowed |
|---|
fredcornell.com/Updated 7 Oct 2026 /How this average is built
The field
Each band is the range the evidence allows. Below it, the lead drawn as its own distribution.
Experimental. This chart is not yet part of the published methodology.
Hover any band for its exact bounds.
Change in 30 days
−0.6Reform UK, from 23.7% to 23.1%.
When is the next election?
By 15 Aug 2029The latest date the law allows. It can be called sooner.
Most recent poll
5 OctYouGov for The Times and Sky News, 2,312 adults, fieldwork 4 to 5 October.
The gap between Labour and Reform UK
Labour's share minus Reform UK's, in points. Above the line Labour lead; below it Reform UK lead.
Labour lead by 3.4 points. A year ago Reform UK led by 9.9. Labour moved ahead in the average on 14 August 2026.
Seats if the swing were the same everywhere
326 seats for a majority, marked by the rule. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are counted separately.
Labour would be the largest party with 335 seats, -9 short of a majority.
This projection applies the change in each party's national share to every constituency alike. It ignores regional differences, tactical voting and local candidates, so treat it as an illustration of the national figures, not as a forecast.
Latest polls
The eight most recent voting-intention polls, newest first.
YouGov 4-5 Oct · n=2,312
Reform 22%Labour 27%Conservative 20%Lib Dems 11%Green 11%
More in Common 3-5 Oct · n=2,088
Reform 24%Labour 29%Conservative 21%Lib Dems 10%Green 7%
Survation 2-5 Oct · n=1,669
Reform 24%Labour 30%Conservative 19%Lib Dems 9%Green 8%
Opinium 30 Sept - 2 Oct · n=1,552
Reform 25%Labour 30%Conservative 17%Lib Dems 9%Green 11%
Find Out Now 30 Sept · n=2,607
Reform 23%Labour 27%Conservative 17%Lib Dems 9%Green 12%
Survation 29 Sept · n=1,548
Reform 23%Labour 29%Conservative 19%Lib Dems 9%Green 9%
More in Common 25-29 Sept · n=2,041
Reform 21%Labour 27%Conservative 22%Lib Dems 11%Green 9%
YouGov 27-28 Sept · n=2,310
Reform 25%Labour 24%Conservative 19%Lib Dems 12%Green 11%
| Date | Pollster | n | Reform | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-5 Oct | YouGovThe Times/Sky News | 2,312 | 22 | 27 | 20 | 11 | 11 |
| 3-5 Oct | More in Common | 2,088 | 24 | 29 | 21 | 10 | 7 |
| 2-5 Oct | Survation | 1,669 | 24 | 30 | 19 | 9 | 8 |
| 30 Sept - 2 Oct | OpiniumThe Observer | 1,552 | 25 | 30 | 17 | 9 | 11 |
| 30 Sept | Find Out Now | 2,607 | 23 | 27 | 17 | 9 | 12 |
| 29 Sept | Survation | 1,548 | 23 | 29 | 19 | 9 | 9 |
| 25-29 Sept | More in Common | 2,041 | 21 | 27 | 22 | 11 | 9 |
| 27-28 Sept | YouGovThe Times/Sky News | 2,310 | 25 | 24 | 19 | 12 | 11 |