Question 1

What is this tracker?

Accepted Answer

This is a weighted average of Trump job approval polls, combining survey data from multiple major US pollsters into a single estimate. The model updates daily with the latest polling data.

Question 2

How is it calculated?

Accepted Answer

The tracker uses exponential recency decay weighting (14-day half-life) combined with four other factors: sample size, pollster quality score, sample type (likely voter > registered voter > adult), and a tracking poll penalty. A single-pass pollster cap prevents any one pollster from dominating the average.

Question 3

How often is it updated?

Accepted Answer

The model recalculates daily at 07:00 UTC, and incorporates new polls as they are detected. Results update in real-time when new poll data becomes available.

Question 4

What do the uncertainty bands mean?

Accepted Answer

The shaded bands around each line represent 95% uncertainty intervals—conservative, pending final calibration. These intervals account for sampling error and model uncertainty.

Question 5

Which pollsters are included?

Accepted Answer

The tracker includes polls from all major US pollsters, including Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN/SSRS, Morning Consult, YouGov, Pew Research, and many others.

Question 6

Is this a prediction?

Accepted Answer

No. This tracker measures current public opinion on Trump's job approval, not future election outcomes. Approval ratings can shift significantly over time.

Question 7

What methodology version is this?

Accepted Answer

This is Beta v1.2, currently undergoing calibration refinement against historical data. The methodology is fully transparent and will be finalized soon.

Question 8

How does this compare to 538 or Real Clear Politics?

Accepted Answer

This tracker uses a fully transparent, open-source methodology. All weighting parameters, pollster quality scores, and model code are publicly documented. You can see exactly how the estimate is calculated.

Question 9

Where does the data come from?

Accepted Answer

Published approval polls are aggregated from Wikipedia, direct pollster websites, and media reporting. The tracker automatically detects new polls within hours of publication.

Question 10

Can I embed this on my site?

Accepted Answer

Embed functionality is coming soon. Check back here for updates.