United States · 2026 Senate forecast
Democrats have a 61% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats.
Republicans control the Senate in 31% of simulations, including 50–50 outcomes decided by the Republican Vice-President. The forecast covers the election on 3 November and was last updated on 7 October 2026.
Run 7 Oct 2026/Polls to 7 Oct/How this is made
Who holds the Senate after November
Four outcomes that together cover every result. Each is a seat count, not a label.
Seats
Each range covers 95 of 100 simulations. The line marks the 51 needed for a majority.
Expected seats: Democrats 51, Republicans 48, independents 1. In 95 of 100 simulations, Democrats hold between 45 and 57 seats. 34 Democratic and 31 Republican seats are not up for election this year.
The ten most competitive Senate races
35 seats are up for election in 2026. These are the ten where each party's chance is closest to even; every race is listed further down the page.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | 53% | 47% | D+0.4 |
| AK | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | 39% | 61% | R+1.8 |
| OH (special) | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | 63% | 37% | D+2.2 |
| TX | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | 65% | 35% | D+2.4 |
| ME | Troy D. Jackson | Susan Collins | 67% | 33% | D+2.9 |
| KS | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | 30% | 70% | R+3.3 |
| SC | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | 30% | 70% | R+3.4 |
| FL (special) | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | 28% | 72% | R+3.9 |
| MI | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | 76% | 24% | D+4.5 |
| MN | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | 78% | 22% | D+5.2 |
Every Senate race, with the candidates
All 35 contested seats, alphabetically. Chance of winning each seat and the mean simulated margin.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | 39% | 61% | R+1.8 |
| AL | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | 1% | 99% | R+20.3 |
| AR | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | 4% | 96% | R+12.6 |
| CO | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | 98% | 2% | D+26.1 |
| DE | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | 99% | 1% | D+29.4 |
| FL (special) | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | 28% | 72% | R+3.9 |
| GA | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | 93% | 7% | D+11.4 |
| IA | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | 53% | 47% | D+0.4 |
| ID | — | Jim Risch | 0% | 99% | — |
| IL | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | 98% | 2% | D+16.3 |
| KS | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | 30% | 70% | R+3.3 |
| KY | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | 6% | 94% | R+11.8 |
| LA | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | 20% | 80% | R+6.0 |
| MA | Ed Markey | John Deaton | 100% | 0% | D+32.2 |
| ME | Troy D. Jackson | Susan Collins | 67% | 33% | D+2.9 |
| MI | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | 76% | 24% | D+4.5 |
| MN | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | 78% | 22% | D+5.2 |
| MS | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 7% | 93% | R+10.3 |
| MT | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | 0% | 98% | — |
| NC | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | 93% | 7% | D+10.0 |
| NE | — | Pete Ricketts | 0% | 54% | — |
| NH | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | 88% | 12% | D+8.0 |
| NJ | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | 98% | 2% | D+23.5 |
| NM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | 99% | 1% | D+20.6 |
| OH (special) | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | 63% | 37% | D+2.2 |
| OK | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | 0% | 100% | R+26.7 |
| OR | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | 99% | 1% | D+28.9 |
| RI | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | 100% | 0% | D+25.9 |
| SC | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | 30% | 70% | R+3.4 |
| SD | — | Mike Rounds | 0% | 76% | — |
| TN | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | 0% | 100% | R+24.6 |
| TX | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | 65% | 35% | D+2.4 |
| VA | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | 97% | 3% | D+22.4 |
| WV | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | 1% | 99% | R+35.1 |
| WY | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | 1% | 99% | R+29.3 |
Who controls the Senate now?
Republicans hold a majority in the current Senate. The forecast is for the Senate that sits after the November election.