United States · 2026 House forecast
Democrats have a 97% chance of winning the House.
Republicans have a 3% chance. The forecast covers the election on 3 November and was last updated on 8 October 2026.
Run 8 Oct 2026/ Polls to 8 Oct/How this is made
Seats
Each band covers 95 of 100 simulations. The line marks the 218 needed for a majority.
Median: Democrats 245, Republicans 190. In 95 of 100 simulations Democrats win between 216 and 282 seats.
The ten most competitive House races
The districts where each party's chance is closest to even. The full page lists all 435.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-1 | — | — | 51% | 49% | D+0.1 | 4 |
| MI-4 | — | — | 49% | 51% | R+0.1 | 4 |
| TX-15 | — | — | 49% | 51% | R+0.2 | 4 |
| NV-2 | — | — | 53% | 47% | D+0.4 | 3 |
| TX-23 | — | — | 47% | 53% | R+0.6 | 1 |
| MT-1 | — | — | 56% | 44% | D+0.8 | 8 |
| CO-5 | — | — | 45% | 55% | R+0.8 | 2 |
| OH-7 | — | — | 57% | 43% | D+1.0 | 3 |
| IA-1 | — | — | 56% | 44% | D+1.0 | 1 |
| PA-8 | — | — | 57% | 43% | D+1.1 | 2 |
Alaska is forecast on its own
Method AK-EXT-2026.1. The main challenger is an independent, so the seat sits outside the two-party model.
Nick Begich, Republican
95.5%chance of winning the seat.
Bill Hill, independent
4.5%chance of winning the seat.
What limits it
5 pollsOne of them carries about 73% of the weight.
Alaska figures are from the 19 September data snapshot.
How the forecast is made
Each chance is the share of simulated elections in which a party wins 218 seats or more. The simulations use district polls where they exist. Most districts have no eligible poll, and there the forecast relies on the structural estimate alone.