Marine Le Pen leads the first-round polls with 34.3%.

• One observation per poll, one field. French polls test several scenarios, each with a different set of candidates, and a candidate's figure depends on who else is in it. Each poll counts once. The figures are read from the scenarios that test both Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal (our reference field, version RF-1, declared 11 October 2026): for each candidate, the mean of their figures across those scenarios. Of the 27 polls of the last 90 days, 5 have no such scenario (Cluster17, 31 Aug to 1 Sep 2026; Cluster17, 15 to 16 Sep 2026; Odoxa, 24 Sep to 7 Oct 2026; Cluster17, 14 to 15 Oct 2026; Cluster17, 19 to 22 Oct 2026); for them the mean of all scenarios is used, and the figures are starred in the latest polls. A candidate tested in a poll only outside those scenarios (Hollande in 8 of the 27 polls; Lisnard and Villepin in 3 each; Faure and Ruffin in 2 each; Arthaud, Guedj, Maire, Maurel, Polony and Royal in 1 each) is also starred: for that poll the mean of all the poll's scenarios in which they appear is used. The field changes only when a candidate declares or withdraws, as set out in advance in our method.
• The average. The UK method: each poll is weighted by recency (the weight halves every 14 days) and by sample size (square root of the sample over 1,000, capped at 3 times). Pollsters are not rated: France has no pollster scores yet, so no poll is weighted up or down for who conducted it. The range of recent polls is the average plus or minus 1.645 times the larger of two figures: the weighted standard deviation of the poll figures, and 1.5 points. So it is never narrower than plus or minus 2.5 points. It is a spread of the polls, showing how much they disagree; it is not a confidence interval or a margin of error. Every listed candidate has an average.
• Second place. The line under the headline compares second and third, poll by poll, when the order changes if every scenario is counted instead of the reference field, or when the gap between them, measured poll by poll, could be zero: 0 lies within its weighted mean plus or minus 1.645 weighted standard deviations. Counting every scenario instead keeps Jean-Luc Mélenchon above Édouard Philippe. Poll by poll, over the 39 polls of the last 12 months that test both, Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads Édouard Philippe by 2.8 points on average; allowing for how much that gap varies, it runs from 0.4 to 5.2 points.
• Who paid for the poll. Each poll of the last 90 days is checked against its notice at the Commission des sondages, which names who paid for it. A poll paid for by a party, a candidate or a campaign team is left out of the average and listed below with its sponsor. Of the 27 polls of the last 90 days, 26 have been checked (last on 28 October 2026); for 1 the notice did not settle it, and it stays in. None of those checked was paid for by a party or candidate.
• Who is shown. A candidate is listed when tested in at least 3 of the polls of the last 90 days, and charted when also tested in at least half of them; the chart shows the six highest. Not listed, tested in fewer polls: Bruno Le Maire (1 of 27), Emmanuel Maurel (1 of 27), Jérôme Guedj (1 of 27), Natacha Polony (2 of 27), Ségolène Royal (2 of 27) and Xavier Bertrand (1 of 27).
• Limits. The figures describe the contest in which both Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal stand; the lines under the table show how much a figure moves when one of a pair is not tested. Averages are comparable over time only while pollsters' scenario mixes stay stable. Pollsters are not adjusted for house effects. A cell published as <1% is counted as 0.5 (7 such cells in the polls used). Wikipedia shows 3 of them as <0.5%, where the Commission notices print <1%. Between polls the average carries the last polls forward; where a candidate went more than 21 days without a poll, no line is drawn across that stretch (a lone poll shows as a dot), and a dashed line means the average rests on fewer than 3 polls' worth of weight. The longest stretch with no first-round poll in the last year runs from 31 October 2025 to 27 February 2026. Wikipedia is a lagging source that people edit. This page does not forecast the first round, the run-off or the winner.

Marine Le Pen is tested in 27 of the 27 first-round polls with fieldwork in the last 90 days. Jordan Bardella is tested in 0 of them; in our source, he was last tested in a first-round poll ending 9 December 2024. The page charts Marine Le Pen only: a scenario that tests another National Rally name is left out of the averages. This is a choice about what is charted and says nothing about who is eligible or will stand.

Source: Wikipedia, "Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election", licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, retrieved 1 November 2026. We read the poll tables and do not alter the figures.