Sweden · Methodology
The Sweden average follows the global method, with four Swedish deltas.
A weighted polling average of Riksdag voting intention across the eight parliamentary parties. It is an estimate of current opinion, not a prediction. Since the 13 September 2026 election, no average is published until six new polls are in; the last estimate is the final pre-election average of 13 September 2026.
How it differs from the global standard
- Eight Riksdag parties: the average tracks all eight parliamentary parties, each with its own recency, sample and reliability weighting per the global standard.
- Multi-gate validation: Swedish polls pass through a sequence of validation gates (source, dedupe, sample and total-share sanity, party-set completeness, and others) before entering the model, with thresholds tuned to the Swedish polling field.
- Bloc context: party figures can be read against the left/right bloc split that governs Swedish government formation.
- After an election: the average starts again. Only polls with fieldwork after election day count, and no average is published until there are six of them. Averages up to election day stay as published.
How to read it
It reflects the published Swedish polls; it does not apply ad-hoc corrections. The final pre-election average and its error against the certified result are on the Sweden page.
Version history
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| se-wra-v1.0 | estimates up to 13 September 2026 | the method above, for the 2026 election. These estimates are closed and stay as published |
| se-wra-v1.1 | estimates after 13 September 2026 | only polls with fieldwork after the 2026 election count, and no average is published until there are six. Weights, half-life and range are unchanged |