United States · 2028 primary · Harris and Newsom

Kamala Harris is on 32.9% and Gavin Newsom on 17.1% in the 2028 Democratic primary polling average.

Two averages side by side are not a head-to-head. Direct head-to-head questions between them will appear here as they are collected. Updated 16 October 2026.

As of 16 Oct 2026Methodology All 2028 primary polls

Primary standing side by side

Each average is the candidate's support among Democratic primary voters in the polls that included them. Both are published averages, read from the same table on the same day. This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

Primary polling averages for the Democratic nomination as of 16 Oct 2026, and their change in percentage points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier. A dash means no comparable stored average exists. Side by side, not a head-to-head.
Candidate	Polling average	Poll questions	Placement	7 days	30 days
Kamala Harris	32.9%	30 of 30	Main table	+1.1	+0.7
Gavin Newsom	17.1%	30 of 30	Main table	−0.3	−0.5

Polls with both on the ballot

These are multi-candidate polls that name both Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom among three or more candidates. Each voter chose one; the whole line-up is shown, not just the two. Shares from different candidates in one poll cannot be subtracted to give a matchup, and we do not do so.

15 multi-candidate questions naming both candidates, fieldwork ending in the last 180 days. The 12 most recent of 15 are shown. Each row is one poll question with its whole line-up, as published.
State	Primary	Fieldwork	Pollster	Sample	Result	Link
MN	Democratic	29 to 30 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	297 likely voters	Kamala Harris (D) 24.3%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 15.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.3%, Don't know 11.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 10.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 7.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 6.3%, Josh Shapiro (D) 5.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.4%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 0.3%	Source
NC	Democratic	27 to 29 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	297 registered voters	Kamala Harris (D) 30.7%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 13.6%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8.7%, Don't know 8.4%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3.3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.8%, Someone else 2.1%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9%	Source
NC	Democratic	27 to 29 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	281 likely voters	Kamala Harris (D) 31.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.5%, Gavin Newsom (D) 14.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Don't know 7.8%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.9%, Someone else 2.2%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9%	Source
OH	Democratic	26 to 27 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	316 registered voters	Kamala Harris (D) 22.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 15.6%, Don't know 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.6%, Andy Beshear (D) 5%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.3%, Someone else 3.1%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.1%, Mark Kelly (D) 2.8%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1%	Source
OH	Democratic	26 to 27 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	302 likely voters	Kamala Harris (D) 21.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.2%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.7%, Don't know 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.1%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 5.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.3%, Mark Kelly (D) 3%, Someone else 2.6%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.1%	Source
TX	Democratic	24 to 26 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	315 registered voters	Kamala Harris (D) 31.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16%, Don't know 11.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 9.2%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.4%, Someone else 3.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 2.8%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.2%	Source
TX	Democratic	24 to 26 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	284 likely voters	Kamala Harris (D) 30.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.5%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 10.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Don't know 9.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.9%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.8%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.3%	Source
GA	Democratic	21 to 23 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	313 likely voters	Jon Ossoff (D) 29.6%, Kamala Harris (D) 24%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 6%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.5%, Don't know 4.2%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8%	Source
GA	Democratic	21 to 23 Sep 2026	Big Data Poll	320 registered voters	Jon Ossoff (D) 29.7%, Kamala Harris (D) 24.1%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.8%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 5.9%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Don't know 4.6%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8%	Source
TX	Democratic	24 to 26 Aug 2026	Overton Insights	365 likely voters	Kamala Harris (D) 28.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 11.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.6%, Mark Kelly (D) 9.4%, Would not vote 8.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 0.9%, Rahm Emanuel (D) 0.7%	Source
TN	Democratic	15 to 26 Aug 2026	Targoz Market Research	204 likely voters	Gavin Newsom (D) 25%, Kamala Harris (D) 22%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 16%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 12%, Don't know 9%, Jon Ossoff (D) 8%, Mark Kelly (D) 5%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3%, Someone else 0%	Source
TN	Democratic	15 to 26 Aug 2026	Targoz Market Research	385 registered voters	Kamala Harris (D) 30%, Gavin Newsom (D) 18%, Don't know 15%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 11%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10%, Mark Kelly (D) 8%, Jon Ossoff (D) 6%, Josh Shapiro (D) 2%, Someone else 0%	Source

Direct head-to-head questions

Direct head-to-head questions between Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom will appear here as they are collected. None of the 59 state primary and general election questions stored for the last 180 days names only the two.

Prediction-market prices

Prices are shown for each candidate and each platform alone. A price is the platform's number, not a poll and not our forecast; the two are never combined.

Market prices for the Democratic nomination, each platform normalised over its own field of contracts.
Candidate	Polymarket	Kalshi
Kamala Harris	7.7%	8.7%
Gavin Newsom	17.3%	14.3%

What the evidence does and does not say

What the evidence says. The evidence says how each candidate stands in the Democratic primary field, each in the national primary polls that included them (Kamala Harris 30 of 30 qualifying questions, Gavin Newsom 30 of 30), and it lists the state primary polls that put both on one ballot, a different set from the national questions behind the averages.

What it does not say. It does not say who would win a contest between the two: none of the 59 state primary and general election questions stored asks voters to choose only between them, and we do not work out a head-to-head from other polls. A vote share is not a chance of winning, and neither is a market price.

More on the 2028 primaries

All 2028 primary polling averages, what changed and the latest polls. The method is on the 2028 methodology page.

Each candidate has a page of their own: Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.