United States · 2028 primary · Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom is on 17.1% in the 2028 Democratic primary polling average.
Support among Democratic primary voters in 30 of 30 qualifying poll questions, second of 10 in the main table. It is an average of polls, not a forecast. Updated 16 October 2026.
As of 16 Oct 2026MethodologyAll 2028 primary polls
Where Gavin Newsom stands
The average is Gavin Newsom's support among Democratic primary voters in the polls that included them, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028. We publish no margin of error with it. The coverage figure shows how much of the polling it rests on: a candidate named in few questions has a less settled average.
| Candidate | Polling average | Coverage | Placement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17.1% | Appeared in 30 of 30 qualifying poll questions | Main table, ranked second of 10 by polling average |
What changed
Change is measured against the average stored on the day exactly 7 or 30 days earlier. Nothing is recomputed.
| Candidate | Polling average | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17.1% | −0.3 | −0.5 |
Polls that include Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom is named in 22 poll questions of the 59 state primary and general election questions stored for the last 180 days: 15 multi-candidate primary questions, 0 direct head-to-head questions and 7 general election questions. The national primary questions that make the polling average are counted in the standing table above and are not listed here. The most recent ended on 30 Sep 2026 (Big Data Poll).
The four groups below are different kinds of evidence. They are kept apart on purpose: no poll is subtracted from, added to or averaged with another to invent a matchup, and a vote share is never a chance of winning. The questions are listed one by one and are not averaged.
Multi-candidate primary polls
These are state primary polls in which voters chose among three or more candidates. Each row is one question with its whole line-up. The national averages above are made from national primary questions; the state questions here are listed one by one and are not averaged.
Named on the same ballot, with the number of questions: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (15), Josh Shapiro (15), Kamala Harris (15), Mark Kelly (15), Pete Buttigieg (15), Jon Ossoff (14), Andy Beshear (12), Gretchen Whitmer (11), Stephen A. Smith (9), Cory Booker (3), JB Pritzker (3), Rahm Emanuel (3), Wes Moore (3), Amy Klobuchar (2), Bernie Sanders (1), Chris Murphy (1), Ro Khanna (1), Ruben Gallego (1).
| State | Primary | Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Result | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | Democratic | 29 to 30 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 297 likely voters | Kamala Harris (D) 24.3%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 15.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.3%, Don't know 11.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 10.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 7.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 6.3%, Josh Shapiro (D) 5.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.4%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 0.3% | Source |
| NC | Democratic | 27 to 29 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 297 registered voters | Kamala Harris (D) 30.7%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 13.6%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8.7%, Don't know 8.4%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3.3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.8%, Someone else 2.1%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9% | Source |
| NC | Democratic | 27 to 29 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 281 likely voters | Kamala Harris (D) 31.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.5%, Gavin Newsom (D) 14.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Don't know 7.8%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.9%, Someone else 2.2%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9% | Source |
| OH | Democratic | 26 to 27 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 316 registered voters | Kamala Harris (D) 22.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 15.6%, Don't know 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.6%, Andy Beshear (D) 5%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.3%, Someone else 3.1%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.1%, Mark Kelly (D) 2.8%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1% | Source |
| OH | Democratic | 26 to 27 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 302 likely voters | Kamala Harris (D) 21.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.2%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.7%, Don't know 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.1%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 5.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.3%, Mark Kelly (D) 3%, Someone else 2.6%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.1% | Source |
| TX | Democratic | 24 to 26 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 315 registered voters | Kamala Harris (D) 31.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16%, Don't know 11.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 9.2%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.4%, Someone else 3.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 2.8%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.2% | Source |
| TX | Democratic | 24 to 26 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 284 likely voters | Kamala Harris (D) 30.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.5%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 10.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Don't know 9.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.9%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.8%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.3% | Source |
| GA | Democratic | 21 to 23 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 313 likely voters | Jon Ossoff (D) 29.6%, Kamala Harris (D) 24%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 6%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.5%, Don't know 4.2%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8% | Source |
| GA | Democratic | 21 to 23 Sep 2026 | Big Data Poll | 320 registered voters | Jon Ossoff (D) 29.7%, Kamala Harris (D) 24.1%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.8%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 5.9%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Don't know 4.6%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8% | Source |
| TX | Democratic | 24 to 26 Aug 2026 | Overton Insights | 365 likely voters | Kamala Harris (D) 28.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 11.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.6%, Mark Kelly (D) 9.4%, Would not vote 8.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 0.9%, Rahm Emanuel (D) 0.7% | Source |
Direct head-to-head questions
A direct head-to-head is a primary question that names exactly two candidates, so a voter chooses one or the other. A head-to-head is never worked out from multi-candidate polls.
Direct head-to-head questions with Gavin Newsom will appear here as they are collected. None of the 59 stored state primary and general election questions puts Gavin Newsom against a single named opponent in a primary. Where Gavin Newsom stands in the primary field is not a head-to-head with any one opponent.
Hypothetical general election matchups
These questions ask voters whom they would back in the November 2028 election if the named candidates were nominated. They are hypothetical: neither side has been chosen. Each question is listed as published, with its whole line-up, and the questions are not combined. One matchup says nothing about another.
| Opponent | Questions | Latest fieldwork | Pollsters |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 5 | 17 Aug 2026 | Emerson College, Overton Insights, SoCal Strategies, Tarrance Group, Zogby Analytics |
| Marco Rubio | 2 | 17 Aug 2026 | Emerson College, Zogby Analytics |
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Result | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 to 17 Aug 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 likely voters | Gavin Newsom (D) 48.8%, JD Vance (R) 44.3%, Don't know 6.9% | Source |
| 16 to 17 Aug 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 likely voters | Gavin Newsom (D) 47.7%, Marco Rubio (R) 45.9%, Don't know 6.4% | Source |
| 1 to 4 Jul 2026 | Zogby Analytics | 1,003 likely voters | Marco Rubio (R) 40.3%, Gavin Newsom (D) 36.2%, Don't know 23.5% | Source |
| 1 to 4 Jul 2026 | Zogby Analytics | 1,003 likely voters | JD Vance (R) 45.1%, Gavin Newsom (D) 38.1%, Don't know 16.9% | Source |
| 20 to 24 Jun 2026 | Tarrance Group | 600 likely voters | JD Vance (R) 47%, Gavin Newsom (D) 43%, Don't know 4% | Source |
| 21 Jun 2026 | SoCal Strategies | 800 likely voters | JD Vance (R) 50%, Gavin Newsom (D) 39.7%, Don't know 10.3% | Source |
| 16 to 20 May 2026 | Overton Insights | 1,377 registered voters | Gavin Newsom (D) 44%, JD Vance (R) 39%, Don't know 9%, Would not vote 8% | Source |
Prediction-market price
A market price is what traders pay on a platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination. It is the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone: prices are never averaged across platforms and never mixed with the polls.
| Platform | Price |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 17.3% |
| Kalshi | 14.3% |
The two platforms differ by more than the published threshold. Neither price is adjusted.
More on the 2028 primaries
All 2028 primary polling averages, what changed and the latest polls. The method is on the 2028 methodology page.
Also: Kamala Harris.
Compare: Harris and Newsom side by side.
Sources
Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.
Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.
The method is on the 2028 methodology page.