Fred CornellIndependent polling averages

United States  ·  2028 primary  ·  Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is on 32.9% in the 2028 Democratic primary polling average.

Support among Democratic primary voters in 30 of 30 qualifying poll questions, first of 10 in the main table. It is an average of polls, not a forecast. Updated 16 October 2026.

As of 16 Oct 2026MethodologyAll 2028 primary polls

Where Kamala Harris stands

The average is Kamala Harris's support among Democratic primary voters in the polls that included them, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028. We publish no margin of error with it. The coverage figure shows how much of the polling it rests on: a candidate named in few questions has a less settled average.

CandidatePolling averageCoveragePlacement
Kamala Harris32.9%Appeared in 30 of 30 qualifying poll questionsMain table, ranked first of 10 by polling average
The polling average for the Democratic nomination as of 16 Oct 2026, with the number of qualifying poll questions that named Kamala Harris. One poll often contains several questions, so the count is of questions, not polls. These are the national primary questions the average is made from; the state primary and general election questions listed further down are a different set and are not in this count.

What changed

Change is measured against the average stored on the day exactly 7 or 30 days earlier. Nothing is recomputed.

CandidatePolling average7 days30 days
Kamala Harris32.9%+1.1+0.7
The polling average now, and its change in percentage points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier. A dash means no comparable stored average exists for that day.

Polls that include Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is named in 19 poll questions of the 59 state primary and general election questions stored for the last 180 days: 15 multi-candidate primary questions, 0 direct head-to-head questions and 4 general election questions. The national primary questions that make the polling average are counted in the standing table above and are not listed here. The most recent ended on 30 Sep 2026 (Big Data Poll).

The four groups below are different kinds of evidence. They are kept apart on purpose: no poll is subtracted from, added to or averaged with another to invent a matchup, and a vote share is never a chance of winning. The questions are listed one by one and are not averaged.

Multi-candidate primary polls

These are state primary polls in which voters chose among three or more candidates. Each row is one question with its whole line-up. The national averages above are made from national primary questions; the state questions here are listed one by one and are not averaged.

Named on the same ballot, with the number of questions: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (15), Gavin Newsom (15), Josh Shapiro (15), Mark Kelly (15), Pete Buttigieg (15), Jon Ossoff (14), Andy Beshear (12), Gretchen Whitmer (11), Stephen A. Smith (9), Cory Booker (3), JB Pritzker (3), Rahm Emanuel (3), Wes Moore (3), Amy Klobuchar (2), Bernie Sanders (1), Chris Murphy (1), Ro Khanna (1), Ruben Gallego (1).

StatePrimaryFieldworkPollsterSampleResultLink
MNDemocratic29 to 30 Sep 2026Big Data Poll297 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 24.3%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 15.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.3%, Don't know 11.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 10.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 7.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 6.3%, Josh Shapiro (D) 5.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.4%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 0.3%Source
NCDemocratic27 to 29 Sep 2026Big Data Poll297 registered votersKamala Harris (D) 30.7%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 13.6%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8.7%, Don't know 8.4%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.5%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3.3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.8%, Someone else 2.1%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9%Source
NCDemocratic27 to 29 Sep 2026Big Data Poll281 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 31.3%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.5%, Gavin Newsom (D) 14.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Don't know 7.8%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Jon Ossoff (D) 3%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.9%, Someone else 2.2%, Andy Beshear (D) 2%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.9%Source
OHDemocratic26 to 27 Sep 2026Big Data Poll316 registered votersKamala Harris (D) 22.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 15.6%, Don't know 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.6%, Andy Beshear (D) 5%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.3%, Someone else 3.1%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.1%, Mark Kelly (D) 2.8%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1%Source
OHDemocratic26 to 27 Sep 2026Big Data Poll302 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 21.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.2%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 12.7%, Don't know 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.1%, Josh Shapiro (D) 7.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 5.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 3.3%, Mark Kelly (D) 3%, Someone else 2.6%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 1.1%Source
TXDemocratic24 to 26 Sep 2026Big Data Poll315 registered votersKamala Harris (D) 31.8%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16%, Don't know 11.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 9.2%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.4%, Someone else 3.3%, Andy Beshear (D) 3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 2.8%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.2%Source
TXDemocratic24 to 26 Sep 2026Big Data Poll284 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 30.9%, Gavin Newsom (D) 16.5%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 10.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 9.8%, Don't know 9.3%, Jon Ossoff (D) 4.4%, Mark Kelly (D) 3.9%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.8%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 3.1%, Someone else 2.5%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2.3%Source
GADemocratic21 to 23 Sep 2026Big Data Poll313 likely votersJon Ossoff (D) 29.6%, Kamala Harris (D) 24%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.9%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7.1%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 6%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.5%, Don't know 4.2%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8%Source
GADemocratic21 to 23 Sep 2026Big Data Poll320 registered votersJon Ossoff (D) 29.7%, Kamala Harris (D) 24.1%, Gavin Newsom (D) 12.8%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 7%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 5.9%, Mark Kelly (D) 5.4%, Don't know 4.6%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.5%, Andy Beshear (D) 3.3%, Someone else 2%, Gretchen Whitmer (D) 1.1%, Stephen A. Smith (D) 0.8%Source
TXDemocratic24 to 26 Aug 2026Overton Insights365 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 28.4%, Pete Buttigieg (D) 14.2%, Jon Ossoff (D) 11.6%, Gavin Newsom (D) 11.5%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) 10.6%, Mark Kelly (D) 9.4%, Would not vote 8.8%, Josh Shapiro (D) 3.9%, Andy Beshear (D) 0.9%, Rahm Emanuel (D) 0.7%Source
15 state primary questions naming Kamala Harris, fieldwork ending in the last 180 days. The 10 most recent of 15 are shown. Each row is one poll question with its whole line-up, as published.

Direct head-to-head questions

A direct head-to-head is a primary question that names exactly two candidates, so a voter chooses one or the other. A head-to-head is never worked out from multi-candidate polls.

Direct head-to-head questions with Kamala Harris will appear here as they are collected. None of the 59 stored state primary and general election questions puts Kamala Harris against a single named opponent in a primary. Where Kamala Harris stands in the primary field is not a head-to-head with any one opponent.

Hypothetical general election matchups

These questions ask voters whom they would back in the November 2028 election if the named candidates were nominated. They are hypothetical: neither side has been chosen. Each question is listed as published, with its whole line-up, and the questions are not combined. One matchup says nothing about another.

OpponentQuestionsLatest fieldworkPollsters
JD Vance217 Aug 2026Emerson College, Zogby Analytics
Marco Rubio217 Aug 2026Emerson College, Zogby Analytics
Every candidate named against Kamala Harris in the general election questions listed below. The table counts questions; it does not say who is ahead.
FieldworkPollsterSampleResultLink
16 to 17 Aug 2026Emerson College1,000 likely votersMarco Rubio (R) 48%, Kamala Harris (D) 43.1%, Don't know 8.9%Source
16 to 17 Aug 2026Emerson College1,000 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 48.8%, JD Vance (R) 44.7%, Don't know 6.5%Source
1 to 4 Jul 2026Zogby Analytics1,003 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 46.3%, Marco Rubio (R) 41.3%, Don't know 12.4%Source
1 to 4 Jul 2026Zogby Analytics1,003 likely votersKamala Harris (D) 47.9%, JD Vance (R) 43.3%, Don't know 8.8%Source
4 general election questions naming Kamala Harris, fieldwork ending in the last 180 days. Each row is one poll question with its whole line-up, as published.

Prediction-market price

A market price is what traders pay on a platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination. It is the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone: prices are never averaged across platforms and never mixed with the polls.

PlatformPrice
Polymarket7.7%
Kalshi8.7%
Market prices for the Democratic nomination, each platform normalised over its own field of contracts.

More on the 2028 primaries

All 2028 primary polling averages, what changed and the latest polls. The method is on the 2028 methodology page.

Also: Gavin Newsom.

Compare: Harris and Newsom side by side.

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.